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Accès libre

A Note on Jointly Backtesting Models for Multiple Assets and Horizons

2016-5, Ardia, David, Guerrouaz, Anas, Hoogerheide, Lennart

We propose a simulation-based methodology, which allows us to test the performance of multi-level and/or multi-horizon value-at-risk forecasts.

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Publication
Accès libre

Macroeconomic stress-testing of mortgage default rate using a vector error correction model and entropy pooling

2016, Ardia, David, Guerrouaz, Anas, Rey, Jeanne

We propose a methodology to perform macroeconomic stress-testing on the probability of default of a given borrowers’ population (i.e., aggregate probability of default) through simulation from a vector error correction model and entropy pooling (Meucci, 2008).